China’s Corn Destocking Program is Progressing Faster Than Expected; Rabobank Offers Options
China’s state grain stockpiling program was abolished in 2016, and since that time the country’s overwhelming corn stocks have declined faster than expected. In less than three years the amount of corn in reserve has decreased by more than 20 percent, and Rabobank foresees inventories falling further in the coming years to possibly critical lows.
Rabobank conducted an analysis for possible scenarios through 2021/22, and has offered suggestions on actions China can take to balance its corn supply.
Within three years, Rabobank points out that China will need to enact policy reform on both domestic grain production and feed grain imports in order to allow China’s corn market to rebalance and supplies to match consumption growth. Relying solely on either increasing production, or increasing imports will not suffice, notes the bank, and will result in consumption outpacing inventory, possibly to a critical point.
Within its report, Rabobank details the specific measures that China can take on both the production side, and the import side, to meet the needed boost of nearly 100 million more tons of of corn by 2021 compared to 2017.