U.S. Corn and Soy Production Lower, but Global Grain Output Up – USDA

One of the biggest changes in the latest World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report issued by the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) in regard to U.S. grains was the reduction in harvested acres. Acreage was down for both soybeans and corn, with corn cultivation reduced by 437,000 acres and soybeans by 1.1 million acres.

An increase in yield for corn of 0.5 bushels per acre will bring average yields to 168 bushels per acres and help to offset the reduction in area, and likewise, a slight increase in the average soybean yield to 47.2 bushels per acre will offset the decline in those acres.

U.S. corn output for 2015/16 is expected to be down slightly by approximately 30 million bushels, leading to a drop in ending stocks of 31 million bushels to 1.6 billion bushels. However, domestic feed demand in the U.S. is expected to remain strong.

Domestic soybean production for 2015/16 fell by 47 million bushels to 3.9 billion bushels, leading to domestic supplies being 66 million bushels lower than originally projected, with ending stocks falling to 425 million bushels – a drop of 25 million bushels. U.S. soybean exports are expected to decline by 50 million bushels due to increased competition and slow sales, but the soybean crush is expected to climb by 10 million bushels to satisfy an increase in demand for livestock feed.

On a global level, corn production in several countries is expected to fall, but this will be offset by higher production in Brazil. Global ending stocks are projected to be 187.8 million tons – 8.2 million tons lower than in 2014/15.

Global soybean production is forecast to be 320.5 million tons – an increase of 0.9 million tons. Brazil is expected to see record production while soybean output in India and Ukraine is expected to fall due to lower yields.

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